Recent revisions to monthly payroll employment data released in August by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have prompted renewed questions about the reliability of U.S. labor market statistics. However, analysis from researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco indicates that these changes are consistent with historical patterns seen over the past six decades.
In a March 2025 study, Sylvain Leduc and Luiz Edgard Oliveira, both economists at the San Francisco Fed, examined short-term revisions in payroll employment and consumer price index (CPI) inflation data. They found that recent revisions were similar in size to those made before the pandemic. “Our findings ease some concerns about the reliability of the data and that monetary policy may become too gradual,” they wrote. The authors noted that during periods of high uncertainty, policymakers may rely more on incoming data rather than forecasts when making decisions: “If policymakers also perceive the data as more uncertain, they may need more evidence that the economy is moving in a particular direction before adjusting policy, which runs the risk of falling behind the curve.”
Concerns about economic data reliability have persisted amid ongoing uncertainty. In June 2025, The Economist published an article questioning whether U.S. economic statistics are becoming less clear (https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/06/29/americas-economic-data-are-becoming-murkier). In July 2025, BLS addressed reductions in CPI data collection through a public note (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/collection-reductions.htm).
The latest round of debate followed BLS’s August release reporting downward revisions for May and June payrolls by 125,000 and 133,000 jobs respectively—a combined reduction of 258,000 jobs—leaving each month with fewer than 20,000 net job gains. July’s revised figure showed an increase of just 73,000 jobs. These adjustments led to speculation that recent labor market strength had been overstated.
Using methodology from their earlier research and drawing on Philadelphia Fed’s Real-Time Data Set—which tracks how official statistics change as agencies receive new information—the San Francisco Fed economists compared average monthly payroll revision sizes since 1990. Their updated figures show that first-round revisions for January–June 2025 remain within historical norms despite being somewhat higher than those seen in 2023 or 2024.
A closer look at individual months revealed that June’s initial revision was notably larger than any seen over the previous sixteen months but not unprecedented; similar changes occurred as recently as December 2023 and January 2024.
The researchers also expanded their analysis back to November 1964 to examine how often large first-round revisions occur. They found such events are rare but not extraordinary: “The likelihood of having a revision of this size or larger is small but not negligible, about 7%, or [a] one in fourteen chance.”
Overall, while some recent adjustments have been sizable compared with last year’s figures, they do not appear out-of-line with longer-term trends observed over sixty years: “This continues to suggest that the incoming data are within the historical range and not generally subject to greater fluctuations—and thus may not reflect higher uncertainty—than in the past.”
The views expressed do not necessarily represent those of Federal Reserve Bank management or its Board of Governors.
